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MANIFOLD
When will SpaceX first fly humans around the Moon?
2
Ṁ175Ṁ184
2034
3%
2028 or earlier
8%
2029
13%
2030
16%
2031
16%
2032
12%
2033
32%
2034 or later

Resolves to the calendar year of launch from Earth for the first crewed SpaceX mission that reaches lunar vicinity, lunar flyby trajectory, lunar orbit, lunar landing, or closer.

“Launch date” means the date the crewed SpaceX vehicle launches from Earth; the lunar encounter date does not determine resolution.

This includes a private commercial Starship circumlunar mission such as the Dennis/Akiko Tito + Chun Wang flight.

This does NOT include Artemis missions where crew launch from Earth aboard SLS/Orion or another non-SpaceX crew vehicle and only use Starship as a lunar lander after transfer in lunar orbit.

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