Will Reform UK poll at 15% or above before the next general election?
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resolved Mar 21
Resolved
YES

Reform UK (the latest incarnation of the Brexit Party) have been polling at around 5% to 10% for the past few months and hit a new high of 11%a few times in December:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

Will they poll at 15% or above before the general election?

Market notes:

  • The only polls which count are those carried out by members of the British Polling Council (all the pollsters you see on the Wiki page are members) and must be of the whole of the UK or GB. No polls of swing voters, marginal constituencies, etc. would count.

  • The poll must be of general election voting intention. So no nationwide polling for local elections or hypothetical things like “how would you vote if Farage was leader of the Conservatives” would count

  • If a poll is released with a headline figure of Reform on 15%, this market will resolve to YES even if digging into the data shows that it would have been 14.x% before rounding

  • Where possible I will use the table at https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election as the source of truth for this market. If the criteria for inclusion or reporting on that page changes to the point where that isn’t possible, I will base this on the primary polling data. If there are any shenanigans or it looks like anyone has edited the Wiki page to manipulate this market, I will resolve based on the spirit of the market rather than this source.

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Yougov gave consistently been finding the highest voter share for Reform so it’s no surprise that they’re the ones to find Reform at 15%. This market resolves to YES.

Can they hit 20%? Can they overtake the Tories?

/SimonGrayson/will-reform-uk-poll-at-20-or-above

/SimonGrayson/will-reform-uk-be-ahead-of-the-cons

Other related markets:

/SimonGrayson/will-any-more-mps-defect-to-reform-6af568feead7

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/SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-which-month-in-6ab8406103dd

Headline figures from the latest YouGov poll puts Reform at 14%:

https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/TheTimes_VI_240229_W.pdf

Reform seem to score a bit higher with YouGov than the others, but if they can notch up another point in a single poll, this will resolve to YES!

predicted NO

Reform notch up a new high of 12% in the latest YouGov poll:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2024

This poll is probably an outlier, but that's still more than they've managed in any other outlier polls!

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