Three weeks ago on 12th June, almost 9,000 subreddits went dark as a protest due to changes being proposed by Reddit.
We've had markets up on how long it will take 75% to come back up - we originally thought that this might happen within a few days but the rate of reopening slowed down futher and further and it was eventually hit on 3rd July.
/MP/will-the-subreddits-return-by-frida
/MP/will-subreddits-return-by-monday
/SimonGrayson/will-75-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits
/SimonGrayson/will-75-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits-3baa7207de33
/SimonGrayson/will-75-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits-1355726bd833
/SimonGrayson/will-75-of-the-gone-dark-subreddits-5462c36f8fe1
How much longer will it take to hit 80%?
This market will use the data at https://reddark.untone.uk/ as the resolution criterea. They are currently stating that "2207/8829 subreddits are currently dark" - 25%. If this figure ticks below 20%, the market resolves to YES.
The deadline is Monday 17th July at 21:00 UK time (the closing time of the market).
The next iteration of the market (with another three weeks to hit the magic number) is below:
Resolution notes:
If the main Reddark site is down or unavailable, we will use https://reddark.io/ as a backup. If both are unavailable, I will attempt to resolve to the spirt of the market (eg. resolving YES if the sites are taken down because the protest is over and everything is reopened, resolving NO if it is very clear that those sites would show that the subreddits are still dark if they were available) or N/A if it's not possible to do so.
1,000
3.00The final scores - 1999/8829 or 22.6% of the subreddits are still down meaning that this comfortably resolves to NO.
Manifold was down as this market was closing, so it's a good thing this wasn't a close run thing with people wanting to bet or reverse their positions in the dying minutes!
Despite trading as high as 85% in the first few days, we're still only half way towards the target number so it looks like this is going to be resolving to NO unless Reddit's admins do something dramatic today!
Will another three weeks be long enough for the 80% figure to be hit? This would need to see around 10 subreddits per day come back online - around the rate that has been happening for the past two weeks.
07/11/2023 7:50am EST: 2063/8829 Subreddits are currently dark.
Need 47.01 Subreddits Per Day Average
07/08/2023 9:15am EST: 2094/8829 Subreddits are currently dark.
Need 35.56 Subreddits Per Day Average
@SirCryptomind That "needed per day" figure just seems to keep going in the same direction...
I wonder if the Reddit admins will be starting up their efforts to reopen subs again on Monday morning?
@SimonGrayson Honestly, I personally think Reddit will have to step in and boot the mods and takeover the subreddits, but I am not sure reddit admins are ready to full on do it and risk others going dark.
I honestly do not see any point in these subreddits staying dark, whats done is done, and nothing will change in regards to the API, imo.
I miss BaconReader but also recognize that Reddit needs to have users use the Reddit app to make money off of ads, and for the most part looking at stats, people are using the Reddit app as Reddit intended.
07/05/23 7am EST: 2146/8829 subreddits are currently dark.
Need 30.79 Subreddits Per Day Average