UK General Election - which month in 2024 will it take place?
UK General Election - which month in 2024 will it take place?
1
480Ṁ285resolved Jun 10
ResolvedN/A
3%
Before 2024
1.9%
January 2024
2%
February 2024
2%
March 2024
3%
April 2024
22%
May 2024
11%
June 2024
3%
July 2024
3%
August 2024
11%
September 2024
16%
October 2024
18%
November 2024
2%
December 2024
2%
Not before 2025
A General Election is widely expected to take place in the UK in 2024.
While it is possible that we could face early electionns in 2023 or that the goverment could hold out for a Christmas campaign and a January 2025 eleciton (and there are options for this in the market), this is seen as pretty unlikely.
Which month will see the General Election take place?
This market applies to the main voting day and if we see a repeat of 1974 where they had two General Elections in a year, this market only applies to the first General Election to take place after the creation of this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.