Resolution criteria

The next UK general election is scheduled no later than 15 August 2029, as Parliament first met on 9 July 2024 and will automatically dissolve five years later unless dissolved earlier. This market resolves YES if a general election takes place before 15 August 2029, and NO if the election is held on or after that date. Resolution will be determined by the official announcement of polling day by the UK Electoral Commission at https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/.

Background

Under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022, the Prime Minister has the power to request the monarch call an election at any time during the five-year length of a parliamentary session, or Parliament automatically dissolves five years after it first met with an election held 25 working days after dissolution. The 2024 general election resulted in a landslide victory for the Labour Party led by Keir Starmer.

Considerations

In January 2026, Keir Starmer signalled that the next election would not come before the middle of 2029, suggesting the Prime Minister is unlikely to call an early election. However, research has found that a Prime Minister gets an average vote share bonus of 6% and a seat share bonus of 12% when they pick the election date, creating incentive for early dissolution if political circumstances change.

This description was generated by AI.

Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if a general election takes place before 15 August 2029, and NO if the election is held on or after that date. Parliament first met on 9 July 2024 and will automatically dissolve on 9 July 2029 unless dissolved earlier, with the latest possible election date being 15 August 2029. Resolution will be determined by the official announcement of polling day by the UK Electoral Commission at https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/.

Background

Under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022, the Prime Minister has the power to request the monarch call an election at any time during the five-year length of a parliamentary session. If the Prime Minister chooses not to do this, Parliament is automatically dissolved five years after it first met, and a general election is held 25 working days after dissolution. The 2024 general election resulted in a landslide victory for the Labour Party led by Keir Starmer, but with the smallest share of the electoral vote of any majority government since record-keeping of the popular vote began in 1830.

Considerations

Research has found that a Prime Minister gets an average vote share bonus of 6% and a seat share bonus of 12% when they pick the election date. Starmer's average approval rating fell from 5% after the election to −30% by January 2025 before levelling off until April 2025 when it began to decline further, reaching −46% by November that year. The Green Party won a by-election in Gorton and Denton in February 2026, marking the first ever Westminster by-election victory for the Greens and seen as a historic upset and major blow to the Labour government.

This description was generated by AI.