Nate Silver has left 538 but he continues to maintain his Presidential election model which attempts to put a figure on how likely each of the candidates are to win the electoral college and therefore win the election. The model is here (the actual model itself is only visible to subscribers, but the commentary is above the paywall):

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

Trump was leading Biden by a wide margin but the first model to measure him against Harris gave her the lead. Trump overtook Harris at the end of August, but she regained the momentum after his woeful debate performance where he shouted about immigrants "eating dogs, eating cats, eating people's pets" and she retook the lead in the forecast today. At the time of market creation, the model gives the contenders these chances:

Harris - 51.1%

Trump - 48.6%

Which of these things will happen first?

• Harris's odds of winning the election will reach 60% or higher?

• Trump will regain the lead and be favourite to win according to the model?

• Neither of these two things will happen by the time of the model's final prediction?

Resolution notes:

• The primary source of truth for this market is Nate Silver's blog. Some of his content is subscriber-only, but the results of the model can usually be found in other media outlets including Nate Silver's own Twitter feed.

• This market only references Silver's model for winning the electoral collage (ie. winning the election) rather than winning the popular vote or getting ahead in the polling average

• If Nate Silver stops publishing a Harris vs Trump model for any reason (including one of the candidates withdrawing) before either of these things happens and does not bring it back online by the time of the election, this market will resolve to the "neither" option.

Related market - Silver's old home at 538 gives Harris a 60% chance of victory. Will Trump overtake Harris there? /SimonGrayson/when-will-trump-overtake-harris-in-tq3ucuxus2