The US Government is currently funded until 17th November. If there is no agreement to fund the government past that date, it is likely that there will be a government shutdown.
The market currently thinks that there is around a 40% chance of a shutdown - /cash/will-there-be-a-us-government-shutd
Legislation to fund the government needs to be passed by the House and the Senate and signed off by the President.
On which date will the necessary legislation be passed to fund the government, either to avert a shutdown or to end a shutdown?
If a shutdown starts and it looks like it's going to last a while, I will add more dates. If you have bet on "Other", you will automatically receive shares in these newly added dates!
Market resolution notes:
The most likely form of funding will be a Continuing Resolution, but any other form of funding will count. If there are multiple bills to fund the government, the market will result to the date on which the final one which is needed to avert or end a shutdown passes
The market will resolve based on EST (GMT -5). For example, if the House and Senate pass a Continuing Resolution on 14th November and the President signs it just after midnight, the market will resolve to 15th November. I will use Congress.gov as the source of truth for this - a page such as this one showing that the previous funding was passed on 30th September
If there is some unusual or unexpected way of funding the government rather than a normal bill passing the House and Senate and being signed into law by the President, I will use my best judgement as to the date on which the actions were taken to fund the government.
In case there is any subjectivity to the resolution of the market, I will not trade on the market myself
Related questions
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Biden signed the document on the sidelines of a dinner at the Legion of Honor museum in San Francisco, where leaders are attending the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit.
Then it took a few hours for it to be reported. Expecting instant reporting may not be a great idea unless there is live coverage.
Just to be 100% clear, the market will resolve based on the date that this page on Congress.gov says the bill was signed:
https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/6363/all-actions
@SimonGrayson Page now says that it was signed 11/16, should resolve.
@KnowNothing this market does resolve on Congress.gov which has not updated.
@JakeFromHackmud unless if the white house press team is lying, that website is going to get updated pretty soon lol
@JakeFromHackmud huh. i guess there is a chance he signed it too late then.
@JakeFromHackmud some light reading while we wait https://www.justice.gov/file/450876/download
@JakeFromHackmud are you telling me he might have been too busy with Xi and just told his staff to sign it for him hahahah
hmm... where's Joe at
[joe biden voice] come on man
I dunno guys, what if Biden is waiting until the last second so he can insider trade and buy Thursday?
@Joshua Nah he's waiting for 12:00 am Saturday, more profit to be made there
Now for Biden to sign
Not sure why this is suddenly surging. Senate is still in session. They're set to start voting within the hour, and they get to go on Thanksgiving break as soon as they're done for the day
Senate could pass today. When would the President sign the bill? https://www.threads.net/@gtconway3dg/post/CzrLbttOU5I/?igshid=NTc4MTIwNjQ2YQ==