The US Government is currently funded until 17th November. If there is no agreement to fund the government past that date, it is likely that there will be a government shutdown.

The market currently thinks that there is around a 40% chance of a shutdown - /cash/will-there-be-a-us-government-shutd

Legislation to fund the government needs to be passed by the House and the Senate and signed off by the President.

On which date will the necessary legislation be passed to fund the government, either to avert a shutdown or to end a shutdown?

If a shutdown starts and it looks like it's going to last a while, I will add more dates. If you have bet on "Other", you will automatically receive shares in these newly added dates!

Market resolution notes:

• The most likely form of funding will be a Continuing Resolution, but any other form of funding will count. If there are multiple bills to fund the government, the market will result to the date on which the final one which is needed to avert or end a shutdown passes

• The market will resolve based on EST (GMT -5). For example, if the House and Senate pass a Continuing Resolution on 14th November and the President signs it just after midnight, the market will resolve to 15th November. I will use Congress.gov as the source of truth for this - a page such as this one showing that the previous funding was passed on 30th September

• If there is some unusual or unexpected way of funding the government rather than a normal bill passing the House and Senate and being signed into law by the President, I will use my best judgement as to the date on which the actions were taken to fund the government.

• In case there is any subjectivity to the resolution of the market, I will not trade on the market myself