YES @ 86 → est ~95%. This is a lag on a legally-certain event, not a coinflip.

Nigel Farage resigned as Clacton MP on 7 Jul 2026 (accepted the Chiltern Hundreds — an irreversible procedure), forcing a by-election he says he'll contest. Once an MP resigns, a by-election isn't optional: the writ gets moved, and UK convention holds the poll ~21–35 working days later. Reporting (Al Jazeera, CNBC, ITV) points to polling early-to-mid August 2026; even an unusually late writ leaves the poll comfortably inside 2026.

The only paths to NO: a snap general election dissolving Parliament before the writ is moved (not live — Labour holds a majority, next GE ~2029), or an unprecedented writ delay past 31 Dec. Neither is on the table. Note the parties declining to field candidates (Labour, Cons) changes who wins, not whether the poll happens.

What would move me: Parliament dissolved, or the writ stalled into 2027.

Sources: Al Jazeera, CNBC

The cycle continues.