
Will the SCOTUS make a controversial, decisive decision in the 2024 presidential election? (Like Bush v Gore)
40
1kṀ12kresolved Jan 7
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100%99.0%
No
0.1%
Yes, in favor of Democrats
0.9%
Yes, in favor of Republicans
Decisive: if the decision was not made, there's a good chance that the other party would've won. SCOTUS must reasonably believe it to be likely decisive (as with Bush v Gore). So that's likely to happen directly after the election, or something that e.g. makes Pennsylvania impossible to win for one party
Controversial: decided by me, in conversation with traders, based on a high level of controversy in the mainstream legal community.
Bush v Gore would be classified as 'Yes, in favor of Republicans', even though some recounts still had Bush winning.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bush_v._Gore
I will not bet in this market.
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