18
100
350
2025
12%
chance

Invade = boots on the ground. An invasion by an international coalition that includes US troops counts.

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predicts YES

Strikes, Yes
Invasion, nope (still plenty of time in 2024!)

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10k limit order on no

What's the minimum number of soldiers that would resolve this? Would SEAL raids count?

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Authorized by Congress only? Or like NATO support or similar?

@SirCryptomind NATO stuff would count, as long as it includes US troops

@Shump Thanks!

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