Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Pro-GOP electoral college bias diminishes from its 2020 level
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13
Ṁ970
Jan 1
82%
chance

https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-2024-predictions

This is a prediction from Matthew Yglesias's 2024 predictions. I will be resolving early when possible but in cases of ambiguity, the ultimate source of truth is Matt's evaluation.

Matt predicts 80% for this question

Matt's calibration for reference:

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bought Ṁ100 NO

Harris has a bigger EC shortfall than Biden, so the switch pushes against this

The description for this one said "dimishes from its 2024 level". That's just a typo, right?

@Shump Seems likely.

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