The Hubble tension or crisis in cosmology is the discrepancy in different methods of measuring the speed of the universe's expansion between methods using observations of the early universe and modeling, vs those using a "ladder" or different distance measurement techniques of stars.

This market will resolve when there is a single, widely agreed upon estimate of Hubble's constant with tight confidence intervals (s.d. <1).

Current best estimates:

Cosmic ladder: SH0ES - 73.04 +- 1.04

CMB: Planck - 67.66 +-0.42

Wrong here means that the current best estimates using either method are 3 standard deviations or more away from the agreed estimate.

If there is scientific consensus that one cannot put a single number estimate on the Hubble constant is wrong, for example in case there are meaningful differences across space, then this market will resolve to "both are wrong". Temporal variation in the Hubble constant does not count, as the Hubble constant is already regarded as a point in time estimate, and the consensus view is that it varies by time.