Big Mysteries in Physics Survey - Hubble Tension
3
175Ṁ92Jan 1
31%
Systematic errors in supernova data
10%
Systematic errors in CMB/galaxy-survey data
10%
Early dark energy (i.e., a change in the dark energy between epochs)
4%
Other new particles or fields
10%
Other
25%
No opinion
10%
Modified or quantum gravity
Background. American Physical Society is holding a Big Mysteries in Physics Survey ( https://physics.aps.org/articles/v18/140) on the toughest questions facing physicists today. One among the questions is posed in this market.
Resolution. This market will resolve to the survey result (in percentages) once it becomes available to the public.
Consideration. For reference, the survey result for the same question at a physics conference held in 2024 is shown below (https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.15776). See also https://youtu.be/e7Rq_Vjhqu4?feature=shared
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Big Mysteries in Physics Survey - Quantum Gravity
Big Mysteries in Physics Survey - Fate of Matter Inside a Black Hole
When will Hubble tension be resolved?
How will the Hubble Tension ("crisis in cosmology") be resolved?
What will be the main origin of the S8 tension in Cosmology?
Will the estimated lower bound of the Hubble constant include values under 65 (km/s)/Mpc by EOY2033?
48% chance
Greatest Physics Work of All Time
In the Crisis in Cosmology, the CMBR answer is closer to correct than the supernovae results
50% chance