Resolution Criteria:
YES to Gas Tax Suspension: If the White House Press Office or Department of Energy issues an official statement announcing a suspension of the federal gas tax
SPR Release Threshold: This is calculated as the total cumulative volume of oil authorized for release/exchange by the Department of Energy between March 1, 2026, and April 14, 2026.
Currently, the DOE has authorized 172 million barrels (with the first 45.2M tranche already in delivery).
The NONE option only resolves if the administration officially cancels the remaining 126.8M barrels of the planned release.
Current release flow is at 1.5 million b/d per https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/shipping/032326-ceraweek-us-spr-to-release-at-rate-of-1-million-15-million-bd-wright
NO: If no such specific emergency energy measure is announced and there is an announced end to SPR release strategy(assumes major global changes)
Will wait until resolution date unless both a federal gas tax holiday and at least 50 M Barrels have been released in which case will resolve immediately
Sources for Resolution:
Primary (Legislation): Congress.gov - Appropriations/Tax Tracker
Primary (Executive): White House Briefing Room
Data (SPR): Energy.gov - DOE Hydrocarbons Office
1,000Update: Reports indicate that while Administration would like to increase the release flow the infrastructure is limiting the ability to do so. Which may lead to an achievement of 50 million barrels by resolution date to be unreachable unless a fix is engineered or infrastructure limitations pushed.
Update: The infrastructure limitation has not changed the authorized total. 45.2 Million tranche remains in delivery, bids for second 10 Million Tranche took bids on April 6 but have not received full authorization as of yet.