MANIFOLD
Will the White House announce a federal "Gas Tax Holiday" and maintain SPR release through April 14, 2026?
0
Ṁ1k
Apr 15
50%
Both: Federal Gas Tax Holiday signed AND SPR release above 50M barrels
50%
No Gas Tax Holiday and SPR release 50M+ barrels,
50%
No Gas Tax Holiday AND SPR release though continuous is capped under 50M barrels
50%
None: Neither Gas Tax Holiday and SPR release is ended prior to authorized level of 172 million barrels(assumes dramatic change in current circumstances at Strait of Hormuz or other significant global event positively impacting oil prices)
50%
Gas Tax Holiday authorized but SPR Release under 50M barrels with no announced end to release strategy

  • Resolution Criteria:

    • YES to Gas Tax Suspension: If the White House Press Office or Department of Energy issues an official statement announcing a suspension of the federal gas tax

    • SPR Release Threshold: This is calculated as the total cumulative volume of oil authorized for release/exchange by the Department of Energy between March 1, 2026, and April 14, 2026.

    • NO: If no such specific emergency energy measure is announced and there is an announced end to SPR release strategy(assumes major global changes)

    • Will wait until resolution date unless both a federal gas tax holiday and at least 50 M Barrels have been released in which case will resolve immediately

  • Sources for Resolution:

    1. Primary (Legislation): Congress.gov - Appropriations/Tax Tracker

    2. Primary (Executive): White House Briefing Room

    3. Data (SPR): Energy.gov - DOE Hydrocarbons Office

Market context
US Politics
Economics
Trump
Politics
Finance
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will US average gas price exceed $4/gallon in March 2026?
82% chance
If Trump becomes President, will gas prices stay under four dollars a gallon until the midterms?
14% chance
Will the US government shut down before April 1, 2026?»
93% chance
Will President Trump extend the DOGE Executive Order Agenda past the July 4th, 2026 deadline?
10% chance
Will a fifth state in the USA enact clean fuel standards by EOY 2027?
58% chance
Will there be a new USA federal holiday added by the end of 2028?
50% chance
Will https://www.noaa.gov/inflation-reduction-act still be online by EOY2027
71% chance
Will the US Government declare a new federal holiday before 2030?
29% chance
Will US strategic petroleum reserve be over 80% of the July 2020 level by December 2029?
38% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy