Will a medical AI bot outperform Human MDs on the USMLE Step 3 before May 2027? | Manifold

Will a medical AI bot outperform Human MDs on the USMLE Step 3 before May 2027?

2

Ṁ100Ṁ20

2027

59%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves YES if a peer-reviewed study shows a model outperforming the mean human score.

Market context

Technical AI Timelines

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will AI be regularly used to diagnose complex diseases by 2028?

Will an AI achieve a perfect score on the MCAT without cheating before 2035?

Will an AI achieve a perfect score on the MCAT without cheating before 2030?

Will there be an AI that diagnoses patients better than an average doctor prior to 2030?

When will a medical AI bot be authorized to make independent medical diagnoses?

Will AIs beat human experts in question-answering on the GPQA benchmark before January 1st, 2027?

Will FDA approve an “AI doctor” for primary care before 2030?

Will AI replace doctors by 2050?

Will AI get a medical license in the USA? (5 year question)

In 2028, will any major hospital advertise the use of AI as the primary method of diagnosis of human patients?

Related questions

Will AI be regularly used to diagnose complex diseases by 2028?

Will an AI achieve a perfect score on the MCAT without cheating before 2035?

Will an AI achieve a perfect score on the MCAT without cheating before 2030?

Will there be an AI that diagnoses patients better than an average doctor prior to 2030?

When will a medical AI bot be authorized to make independent medical diagnoses?

Will AIs beat human experts in question-answering on the GPQA benchmark before January 1st, 2027?

Will FDA approve an “AI doctor” for primary care before 2030?

Will AI replace doctors by 2050?

Will AI get a medical license in the USA? (5 year question)

In 2028, will any major hospital advertise the use of AI as the primary method of diagnosis of human patients?