When will a medical AI bot be authorized to make independent medical diagnoses?
9
47
295
2033
15%
Before 2028
32%
Between 2028 and 2032
53%
After 2032

By what year will a medical AI bot first be authorized by a major health regulatory body, which oversees a population of over 100 million people (such as the FDA in the USA or EMA in Europe), to make independent medical diagnoses without direct human oversight?

This question focuses on several key aspects:

-The technological advancement required for AI to independently diagnose.

-The regulatory hurdles and safety standards that such a technology would need to meet.

-The trust and acceptance of AI in critical healthcare decisions by professionals and the public.

-A timeline for achieving this milestone, inviting bets on when it might happen.

If no bot has been authorized, it resolves on Jan 1, 2033.

I specifically mentioned that the regulatory body should oversee at least 100 m people to ensure that the focus is on significant, influential health authorities, thereby aligning the question more closely with global trends and impactful advancements. In the case that medical AI bots will be authorized only in small countries, this market resolves true if their combined population is over 100 m people.

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