What will be true of Ilya Sutskever's 'next project'? (add answers)
128
1.1k
αΉ€1.7k
2025
81%
Someone in an Executive or Director role at a FAANG or MAMAA company resigns to join the project within 1 month of the announcement
33%
It's related to the medical or scientific research industry
49%
A manifold user works at the company (within a month of the announcement)
3%
It will involve godagreements
21%
A former OAI executive or board member is working on the project with him (not counting Jan Leike)
51%
It's leaked before he announces it officially (when he announces, we already know what it is)
24%
It will involve Anthropic
45%
It will involve Jan Leike
16%
Related to politics or policy
7%
By "next project" he was referring to something in his personal life (such as family, etc) and not work related
27%
Karpathy is involved somehow
84%
He will have a c-level title
84%
It hasn't been founded yet (he will start one that isn't yet established)
57%
It will be a public company (for profit)
30%
It will be a nonprofit
5%
It's unrelated to the tech industry
8%
It's unrelated to AI
47%
We will learn what it is before July
17%
We will learn what it is before June
1%
It will involve Helen Toner

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How does "it hasn't been founded yet" resolve if he starts a new subdivision at a FAANG company?

@RyanCarey "it" refers to the project (not a company) so presumably the two aren't in conflict?

What counts as a Manifold user? Does one who has an account but has not traded within the past year (but has traded) count? And does it need to have their full name in their Manifold profile?

@RahulShah I leave it up to @SemioticRivalry to resolve, but I'll comment since I added that answer.

I think it should be a best guess about whether the person would consider themself a Manifold user. Best case would be to ask them directly; if someone claims to be a user, and has an account at all, I think that counts.

If it's a public figure with a publicly known account, I'd lean toward yes, even if it's not very active (so yes to your hypothetical example).

For unknown people (or anonymous public figure accounts), I'd expect someone would need to come forward, probably in the comments here, for us to know about it at all. That could be verified by a mod or market creator if there's doubt.

If someone says they are not a manifold user, or they've left the platform, or they deleted their account, or similar, then I'd say they are not a user for this market. But mostly, I think it's more fun to interpret this widely, the manifold user base isnt so large, if there's a reasonable association at all I'd say count it.

Someone in an Executive or Director role at a FAANG or MAMAA company resigns to join the project within 1 month of the announcement

FAANG: Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google
MAMAA includes companies under the Meta and Alphabet umbrellas, and Microsoft

It will involve godagreements

lmao

A former OAI executive or board member is working on the project with him (not counting Jan Leike)
bought αΉ€5 A former OAI executi... NO

Just to double check, Jan Leike wouldn't be considered an exec, right?

bought αΉ€55 A former OAI executi... YES

@Nat ugh i bought my position assuming he would qualify w/co-founder status taken into consideration. clarification please? (if he doesn't qualify, no biggie, I should have read the details before jumping the gun)

@Ophiuchus fwiw I thought the same thing, but sold out when I realized from here it was up for discussion.

I will say that he does not count

oopsβ€”I missed the comment last night. sorry for the delay in response. according to his Twitter bio, Jan Leike was "ML Researcher, co-leading Superalignment @OpenAI" which is not an executive role. he was also never on the board.

I see he's been added by name, so that's the option to bet on if you think he may be involved in Ilya's project.

@Ophiuchus ah I stand corrected - I've deleted my twitter account, so thanks for screenshotting (and for the nudge)

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