Will Pakistan have a major civil war by the end of 2035?
Will Pakistan have a major civil war by the end of 2035?
4
100Ṁ1152035
18%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Major shall be defined as at least 100,000 deaths per year.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will Pakistan engage in military conflict with another nation before the end of 2035?
44% chance
Will there be a war between Iran and Pakistan before 2030?
31% chance
Will Pakistan become more authoritarian in 2025?
66% chance
When will there be a war between Iran and Pakistan before 2030?
Will any of the following Western countries have a civil war by 2030?
14% chance
Will a major war break out in 2025?
39% chance
Will the percent of Pakistanis in extreme poverty be above 5 percent in 2023?
69% chance
Will there be a civil war in the United States before 2030?
4% chance
Will Pakistan bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035?
58% chance
Will Pakistan bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030?
39% chance