Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if India and Bangladesh engage in direct military conflict involving armed forces of both nations by December 31, 2026. This includes sustained combat operations, military strikes, or armed clashes that constitute war or armed conflict under international law. The resolution will be determined by credible international news sources (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera, etc.) and official statements from either government confirming military engagement.

Isolated border skirmishes, protests, diplomatic tensions, or economic sanctions alone do not constitute war. The conflict must involve organized military operations by state forces.

Background

Relations deteriorated sharply after Sheikh Hasina's ouster in August 2024, with India's initial unwillingness to engage with the interim government and subsequent escalations fueling tensions. Bangladesh's national elections are scheduled for February 12, 2026.

While the prospect of state-to-state conflict remains remote, strained relations could manifest in destabilizing ways short of war, including violent protests, communal attacks, border killings and insurgent activity. Elections in Indian border states of Assam and West Bengal in March-April 2026 are potential flashpoints, as is the looming expiration of the Ganges Water Sharing Treaty.

Considerations

Bangladesh's meddling in Indian affairs is currently rhetorical, with anti-India talk becoming an easy way for leaders to show strength and nationalism ahead of elections. India and the BNP appear to be pivoting toward a closer working relationship as Bangladesh prepares for elections in February.