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MANIFOLD
Will my SPXL position go to zero before 2040?
5
Ṁ70Ṁ34
2040
31%
chance

I have a bit of SPXL, a 3x leveraged ETF. Suppose if I sit on it long-term. Theoretically it could go to 0, if the underlying index declined by >33.3% in one day (before the rebalancing could save it).

In practice this seems unlikely -- we'd expect the exchanges to use a circuit-breaker, or do some sort of rollback.

...Right?

Will I lose the money? Resolves YES if my SPXL position goes to 0, resolves NO in 2040-Jan if this doesn't happen.

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I guess since the largest on-record SP500 drop is −20.47% back in 1987, that lowers the odds.

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