Which country will release an artificial pathogen from a lab that kills 1 million?
2
260Ṁ302070
1D
1W
1M
ALL
27%
United States
18%
China
28%
Russia
28%
We wait until an artificial pathogen has killed 1 million people worldwide. Then we use our best guess of which country it originated from, and resolve that country to YES.
Any release counts, as long as it had gain-of-function done to it, or had artificial gene tweaks, or some other deliberate alteration. We won't distinguish between military, private, research, deliberate, or accidental releases -- any would count
We must be confident it was unnatural in origin. So e.g. Covid would probably not meet that criteria (yet). There are suspicions, but the evidence doesn't clearly point there (so far).
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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