Will anyone die from a weaponized pathogen invented by AI by 2029?
23
1kṀ9772029
15%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves "yes" if a major U.S. news outlet reports one or more human fatalities caused by a pathogen whose structure was invented by an ML model. A human must prompt the ML model to create the pathogen with the explicit intention to kill humans.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Related questions
Related questions
Does an AI disaster kill at least 100 people before 2029?
74% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000 people before 2029?
55% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 10,000 people before 2029?
56% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 100,000 people before 2029?
25% chance
Will an AI system design a pathogen which leads WHO to declare an emergency of some sort by the end of the July, 2030?
21% chance
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
4% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000,000 people before 2029?
12% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 100,000,000 people before 2029?
6% chance
Does an AI disaster kill at least 10,000,000 people before 2029?
8% chance
Will an engineered pathogen cause a pandemic before 2030?
7% chance