How quickly will USA lift its sanctions on Russia after the end of Russo-Ukrainian hostilities?
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Plus
12
á¹€981
2028
5%
Less than a day
6%
More than a day, less than a week
7%
More than a week, less than a month
36%
More than a month, less than a year
36%
More than a year, less than a decade
9%
More than a decade

How long will it take for the US to lift/raise/release/end its economic sanctions on Russia following the end of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine?

Clock starts when Russia and Ukraine credibly officially agree to end the conflict & announce that to the world. If there isn't a nice, clean, official pronouncement, (eg: a temporary cease-fire keeps getting extended) clock starts when armies have withdrawn (when armies are out of each other's territories & not massed threateningly at the border) and air strikes have stopped.

'Sanctions lifted' will use the same resolution vibe as this other market (but not chatbot adjudication):

...largely lifted (let's say more than 80 percent) ... compared to the baseline of today (2024-06-30).

Data over which to to evaluate this vibe: See the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control's Ukraine-/Russia-related Sanctions page and Sectoral Sanctions Identifications List which is currently a 185-page PDF (other formats) with 295 entities with Russian addresses.

This market contemplates the prompt ending of sanctions as incentive for Russia and Ukraine to return to being peaceful neighbors. If instead the conflict ends by Russia annexing or depopulating Ukraine, this market will resolve N/A. (At market creation time this seems unlikely.)

Close date will be extended as necessary. I will not bet in this market.

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