Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to the option that accurately reflects the duration of Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal government, measured from his swearing-in on March 14, 2025, until the end of his tenure as Prime Minister. The available options are:

• Less than 6 months

• 6 to 12 months

• 1 to 2 years

• 2 to 3 years

• 3 to 4 years

• Full 4-year term or more

The resolution will be based on official records of Carney's term in office. If Carney's tenure ends before September 14, 2025, the market will resolve to "Less than 6 months." If it ends between September 14, 2025, and March 14, 2026, it will resolve to "6 to 12 months," and so on. If Carney serves at least until March 14, 2029, the market will resolve to "Full 4-year term or more."

Background:

Mark Carney, a former central banker, was sworn in as Canada's 24th Prime Minister on March 14, 2025, after winning the Liberal Party leadership election. (en.wikipedia.org) Shortly after assuming office, he called a federal election, which took place on April 28, 2025. The Liberal Party secured 169 seats, forming a minority government. (en.wikipedia.org)

Carney's government faces several challenges, including managing strained relations with the United States due to President Donald Trump's tariff threats and annexation rhetoric. (apnews.com) Domestically, the administration must address rising living costs and increased immigration. The stability of a minority government often depends on alliances with other parties, which can influence its longevity.