This market will resolve based on the approval rating of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's government in the final poll of 2025 from Abacus Data.
I'm not currently aware of a Canadian source that aggregates and averages these ratings, so I will be using Abacus Data polling that typically contains a graph such as this:
https://abacusdata.ca/abacus-data-poll-post-election-first-poll/
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ677 | |
| 2 | Ṁ203 | |
| 3 | Ṁ39 | |
| 4 | Ṁ15 | |
| 5 | Ṁ5 |
https://abacusdata.ca/canada-federal-poll-december-2025-political-landscape/
@Jubs resolves 46-50%+ as his government approval is 47%. This can resolve now as it says the poll is the last federal tracker of 2025
FYI, when I was designing a similar question, I went with Angus Reid as a source https://manifold.markets/Seanny123/what-will-pierre-poilievres-approva?r=U2Vhbm55MTIz