Will a high-ranking U.S. official endorse "UFOs = aliens" this year?
211
2kṀ31k
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

An endorsement can be as little as saying "we should take the idea of extraterrestrial influence seriously", or similar remarks. Bill Nelson's remarks (https://thehill.com/opinion/international/579303-nasa-chief-bill-nelson-latest-official-to-suggest-ufos-have/) would count, for instance.

It's not sufficient to say "extraterrestrial intelligence may exist" in a context divorced from UFO considerations, nor is it sufficient by itself to say "we don't know what UFOs are".

For the purposes of this market, a "high-ranking U.S. official" is any of:

  • President

  • Vice president

  • Cabinet member

  • Member of Joint Chiefs of Staff

  • Member of the National Security Council

(I'm open to persuasion if someone thinks I missed someone obvious. I'm deliberately only considering the executive branch, though.)

Adding Jul 30: The statement must either be public, or made public (e.g. leaked, and confirmed by an independent source) by the end of the year. If leaked, the leak must come from two independent sources, and both sources must come forward before the end of the year.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ287
2Ṁ283
3Ṁ209
4Ṁ165
5Ṁ158
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy