When will we measure the mass of neutrino?
Basic
1
Ṁ37
2036
34%
Before 2026
43%
Before 2028
50%
Before 2030
54%
Before 2032
56%
Before 2034
57%
Before 2036

As of 2024, only the upper bounds for the mass of neutrino are known: the estimation from KATRIN experiment shows that the mass is < 0.8 eV. It is known that the neutrino can't have zero mass, but exactly how low can it be, remains unknown.

There are different proposals of the new experiments that could measure neutrino mass more precisely. This market will resolve positively as soon as any of them (or some other project) determines a lower bound for neutrino mass.

The lower bound should be no more than 2 degrees of magnitude below the upper bound known at the time. If it happens that first a very small lower bound is found and then the upper bound is lowered to meet this condition, the market will be resolved as soon as (upper bound / lower bound) < 100.

The discovery should be published in a peer reviewed journal, or published as a preprint and not refuted in the next 2 months. The confidence of the discovery should be at least 5 sigma.

Until the discovery is made, the answers will be resolved to NO as soon as the respective time period is over.

I do not be on my own questions.

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I'm going to rename the question to just "find neutrino mass" to hopefully make it easier to parse. The resolution criteria will stay the same: (upper bound) / (lower bound) < 100.

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