What country will first denote a nuclear weapon in combat?
9
Ṁ640Ṁ2923050
39%
Russia
14%
9%
Israel
6%
India
6%
China
5%
United States
5%
North Korea
5%
Pakistan
5%
United Kingdom
5%
France
1.7%
Iran
If no weapon is ever detonate, this market will remain open indefinitely.
If there's uncertainty as to responsibility, then I will resolve to whichever country the weapon was housed in. For example, if an ostensibly Russian-operated weapon is launched from Belarus, and both countries deny responsibility, this market will resolve to Belarus.
Betting policy: I expect resolution to be pretty much unambiguous, so I'll bet in this market unrestrictedly.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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