First country to conduct offensive nuclear strike (before 2035)?
First country to conduct offensive nuclear strike (before 2035)?
7
1.2kṀ15452034
20%
Pakistan
19%
Russia
9%
North Korea
9%
Israel
9%
United States
7%
China
7%
India
6%
Iran
6%
5%
Saudi Arabia
2%
France
1.4%
United Kingdom
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to the first country that conducts an offensive nuclear strike after market creation and before January 1, 2035.
Exclusions: Nuclear tests and the use of radiological dispersal devices (commonly known as "dirty bombs") are excluded from this definition and will not trigger resolution.
No Occurrence: If no offensive nuclear strike occurs before the specified date, the market will resolve as N/A.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Which countries will detonate a nuclear weapon offensively in 2025?
Will there be an offensive nuclear detonation in 2025?
4% chance
Will any country that is not currently known to have nuclear weapons detonate a nuclear weapon in 2025? (Tests included)
10% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025?
12% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025?
12% chance
What country will detonate the next nuclear weapon?
Israel deploys nuclear weapons in 2025?
5% chance
Which country will be the first to use a nuclear weapon in anger (post WW2)?
Will a nuclear bomb be used in a terrorist attack before 2035?
17% chance
Which countries will increase the size of their nuclear warhead stockpile in 2025?