For the purposes of this question, it's sufficient if U.S. intelligence services took meaningful and deliberate action to cause the assassination (e.g. paying somebody else to do it).
I will differ from simple PROB resolution conservatively, only to avoid market failures. For instance, I may randomize the precise close time, or use the probability from the day before close. I will not be betting in this market.
Jan 24, 12:07pm: Was JFK assassinated by U.S. intelligence services? (Resolves PROB in 1 month) → Was JFK assassinated by U.S. intelligence services? (Resolves MKT in 1 month)
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@MartinRandall Do you have some reason to call that manipulation? Some people deliberately pay more attention to markets that are closing soon.
@jack I'm doing an experiment about the behavior of resolve-to-mkt over various timescales, particularly on an issue where social desirability bias might be relevant.
(Long-term polls also don't make sense, since last-minute evidence can't be incorporated as easily. The longest timescale is selected so that there's a decent chance of new evidence becoming available.)
@ScottLawrence Ok, got it.
(Long-term polls also don't make sense, since last-minute evidence can't be incorporated as easily. The longest timescale is selected so that there's a decent chance of new evidence becoming available.)
You have a market that predicts the result of a poll in 1 year - the poll only starts running at the 1-year mark, like this: https://manifold.markets/jack/will-we-believe-sbf-committed-willf