Observation of Hawking radiation by 2040?
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190Ṁ181
2040
26%
chance

Resolves YES if Hawking radiation is observed by 2040. This must be Hawking radiation from a black hole in GR. An astrophysical black hole counts, but so would an artificially made black hole. A quantum system claimed to be analogous to thus-and-such theory of gravity will not count.

The observation need not be "direct". It is sufficient for the BH's mass to be observed to be decreasing, for instance.

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What about very indirect evidence e.g. evaporating primordial black hole causing CMB spectral distortions?

@TomBouley that should resolve YES.

It'll be subjective. If the observation happens by 2040, I'll wait a few years to see how the consensus evolves.

Observing Hawking radiation from an astrophysical black hole is about as likely as discovering that the Moon is made of cheese. With an artificial black hole, it might be possible, but this is still very unlikely to occur in the given time frame.

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