Observation of Hawking radiation by 2040?
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Ṁ182Ṁ190
2040
26%
chance
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Resolves YES if Hawking radiation is observed by 2040. This must be Hawking radiation from a black hole in GR. An astrophysical black hole counts, but so would an artificially made black hole. A quantum system claimed to be analogous to thus-and-such theory of gravity will not count.
The observation need not be "direct". It is sufficient for the BH's mass to be observed to be decreasing, for instance.
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@TomBouley that should resolve YES.
It'll be subjective. If the observation happens by 2040, I'll wait a few years to see how the consensus evolves.
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