Observation of Hawking radiation by 2040?
10
190Ṁ191
2040
29%
chance

Resolves YES if Hawking radiation is observed by 2040. This must be Hawking radiation from a black hole in GR. An astrophysical black hole counts, but so would an artificially made black hole. A quantum system claimed to be analogous to thus-and-such theory of gravity will not count.

The observation need not be "direct". It is sufficient for the BH's mass to be observed to be decreasing, for instance.

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