Will we find or make a wormhole to another observable universe that lets information flow both ways by the end of 2100?
Will we find or make a wormhole to another observable universe that lets information flow both ways by the end of 2100?
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What counts as "another" universe? Space from the same big bang that would be unreachable without the wormhole? Space accessible through a spinning black hole?
predictedNO 1y
@extent_of_foxes another observable universe (probably within the same entire universe). That is, it is outside our cosmological horizon. (Since the term technically has multiple meanings, I guess I will specifically pick the cosmic event horizon for concreteness.)
Also useful background: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_ring
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
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