See https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/2023-prediction-contest
I have scores already. About 3300 people entered Blind Mode. What percentile among these people do you think the median superforecaster who entered got?
I will probably post results on Monday; this question will close then. It will resolve to the percentile, so if they got 50th percentile, it will resolve to 50.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ37 | |
| 2 | Ṁ17 | |
| 3 | Ṁ5 | |
| 4 | Ṁ4 | |
| 5 | Ṁ3 |
@JordanB123 Neither the market's title nor its description mentions Brier-scores. In common parlance, a higher score means a better score and there are scoring rules for predictions where greater is better like the logarithmic score.
EDIT: after thinking on it a bit, I think your question is valid and I'm much less certain about the direction this will resolve than before. still, it will be probably the same way as last year