What percentile did the median superforecaster get in the 2023 ACX prediction contest?
17
138
400
resolved Mar 5
Resolved as
70%

See https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/2023-prediction-contest

I have scores already. About 3300 people entered Blind Mode. What percentile among these people do you think the median superforecaster who entered got?

I will probably post results on Monday; this question will close then. It will resolve to the percentile, so if they got 50th percentile, it will resolve to 50.

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Can you clarify if you are inverting the percentile, meaning that the 100th percentile is the "best" score (which is the lowest Brier score) rather than the "highest" score (which is the worst score), which this market seems to have assumed.

@JordanB123 Neither the market's title nor its description mentions Brier-scores. In common parlance, a higher score means a better score and there are scoring rules for predictions where greater is better like the logarithmic score.

EDIT: after thinking on it a bit, I think your question is valid and I'm much less certain about the direction this will resolve than before. still, it will be probably the same way as last year

@JordanB123 Yes, 100th percentile is the best score.