
Which of the following Manifold users will rank highest in the ACX 2025 prediction contest?
17
1.4kṀ17k2026
45%
Bayesian (https://manifold.markets/Bayesian)
30%
nikki (https://manifold.markets/nikki)
12%
jim (https://manifold.markets/jim)
7%
Primer (https://manifold.markets/Primer)
6%
Timothy Johnson (https://manifold.markets/TimothyJohnson5c16)
Resolves to the user among those listed with the highest total spot score.
This market will never resolve to Other, but I've included that option just so I can add additional people.
If you'd like to participate, leave a comment asking me to add you by the end of February. After that point, the list of contestants for this market will be closed.
Update 2025-03-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The resolution metric is updated to use the spot score.
The tournament page summary indicates that the ranking will be based on the spot score.
This update supersedes the original reference to the overall peer score for determining the winner.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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