Which of the following Manifold users will rank highest in the ACX 2025 prediction contest?
17
1.4kṀ17k
2026
45%
Bayesian (https://manifold.markets/Bayesian)
30%
nikki (https://manifold.markets/nikki)
12%
jim (https://manifold.markets/jim)
7%
Primer (https://manifold.markets/Primer)
6%
Timothy Johnson (https://manifold.markets/TimothyJohnson5c16)

Resolves to the user among those listed with the highest total spot score.


This market will never resolve to Other, but I've included that option just so I can add additional people.

If you'd like to participate, leave a comment asking me to add you by the end of February. After that point, the list of contestants for this market will be closed.

  • Update 2025-03-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The resolution metric is updated to use the spot score.

    • The tournament page summary indicates that the ranking will be based on the spot score.

    • This update supersedes the original reference to the overall peer score for determining the winner.

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