There are still a few questions left to resolve: https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/ACX2025/

Currently I'm in 403rd, with a total score of 574.985. Overall I think I did pretty well, but I was weighed down with a -229 for predicting a 1% chance of an Israel-Iran war. Oops...

I'm not sure what everyone's Metaculus username is, but I believe @Bayesian is currently ahead in 47th, with a score of 1021.767.

🥳

@Bayesian did you place highest? I’m not sure what the others used as their metaculus name. Scrolling on the leaderboard yours was the first I recognised.

@Jack1 yeah i think ive found all the remaining ones except jim, i think I am first, but @jim are you top 80

@Jack1 @Bayesian they haven’t even scored half of the questions yet!

@bens ohhhhhh i was gonna take the current score at face value, ty for pointing that out

@bens thanks, I didn’t know how metaculus worked

@Bayesian they’ll put out a whole announcement once they’ve finished scoring the questions and determining the winners.

@bens the medals just pop up automatically when the timeline of the tournament is over, but those aren’t “official” or whatever yet.

This is a Christian channel so I'll use wholesome language. But suffice it to say you guys have no chance.

@jim order up

for almost all predictions i'm currently set to be underconfident

eg metaculus is now at 10% and i predicted 25%

shorting @jim is ez money

@dlin007 😭

@jim sry :(

@jim more?

The list of competitors is now locked, and the first question for the contest resolved.

I didn't do that well, but I guess no one else did either, so at least my peer score so far is positive.

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31348/us-government-releases-additional-epstein-documents-in-2025/

Oh, actually, the semaglutide question also resolved, and I missed on that one pretty badly. I don't think I'm winning this...

I predicted 30% on the epstein question that resolved YES, and 73% on the semaglutide question that resolved YES

what about you @jim

@Bayesian 39% and 78%

@TimothyJohnson5c16 I'm not totally sure, but I think the relevant figure is the spot score

@jim well the relevant figure is spot peer score but I'm not sure if that's the same as spot score. Peer score itself is time-weighted rather than just based on the situation as of the community prediction reveal so isn't right.

@jim Thanks, the tournament page has a summary, and it seems to be using the spot score. This is what I have so far:
https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/ACX2025/

@TimothyJohnson5c16 oh awesome. This is fun. I just wishing I hadn't put Elon at 20% to be richest.

@jim just to come clean I think that Elon 20% is my best prediction.

@jim I'm at 65%, happy with it

@Bayesian then u should probably have jim at >35% on this market