will @jim beat @bayesian in the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest?

Basic

Ṁ1321

2026

35%

chance

ALL

resolves YES if jim's score is greater than bayesian's score

50% of tied

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

20 Comments

14 Holders

27 Trades

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Why are so many people trading in the wrong direction... at a terrible price 😆

bought Ṁ69/Ṁ69 NO at 35%

filled a Ṁ10 NO at 34% order

Link to contest:

https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/ACX2025/?page=3

I'm not familiar with Metaculus, but it seems like only the community prediction will be revealed in two days, not everyone's individual positions. Is that right?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 that is indeed correct

@TimothyJohnson5c16 we can reveal positions voluntarily tho (if bayesian's keen), except maybe the market manipulation ones

i’ll only reveal the market manipulation one: it will resolve no at 90%, conditional on it resolving

Jim is very good at predicting

If I may ask also, what were both of your placements on the 2024 contest?

opened a Ṁ3,000 NO at 40% order

@benshindel @jim @Bayesian

@benshindel i don't remember, i think it was better than avg but nothing impressive? i'll see if i can find it again

on metaculus it says Total Score 131.37 but i answered only like half of questions

maybe i was remembering the 2023 one. not sure

@benshindel I didn't participate

opened a Ṁ5,000 NO at 45% order

Limit orders up at 45 and 40 (nothing personal XD)

free manas please buy YES

bought Ṁ69 YES from 42% to 50%

fill me guys

bought Ṁ50 NO

Did you both answer all questions? Or only ones you felt confident in

opened a Ṁ333 YES at 50% order

@MingCat I only answered ones I was confident in, which was all of them

bought Ṁ10 NO from 42% to 38%

opened a Ṁ25,000 NO at 50% order

@MingCat I also answered all questions, none of which i was confident in (except the manifold whalebait one)

@Bayesian lol I hope you bet 0.1%

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