@Bayesian What's happening 👀

@jim If ur just selling to spend the money elsewhere u could have gotten a better price

order up

@jim same

@Bayesian suddenly worried?

@jim i seek better prices because I like manas

@Bayesian but 25% is better prices. People were happy to buy this down to 15%

@Bayesian

@jim and yet you didn't buy it up when that low. curious. maybe you don't really believe in yourself that much. otherwise you would forsure fill me at 50%.

😠

ah if you're only 49% sure i'm willing to drop the limit order to 48%. that's as low as i'm willing to go tho, credence being 47% and all

order up

how are you all so bad at this

Which side are you on?

@jim Is higher better? What does this mean

@Bayesian the winner of this contest is determined by who has the highest sum of peer scores accross the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest markets

@jim Oh so ur way better than me so far?

@Bayesian yes but this is just our scores for resolved questions, not the questions in the 2025 contest

@Bayesian frankly my comment is tongue-in-cheek tho, one pretty much gets a better peer score by just updating one's predictions more frequently. Which we can't do in this contest because it just takes our predictions as of jan 31 and ignores any updates we make.

@jim these are both so low, my avg peer score these days is like 20

@benshindel yes we're casuals lol. Reveal some of your predictions for this contest?

@jim

@jim one interesting thing about this contest is that the questions skewed less likely than average by a decent amount:

community average was ~38%, my average was ~36% across questions. There's basically no reason this should happen because you could easily phrase questions in the negative ("this won't happen" vs "this will happen") so I thought this was interesting

@benshindel your predictions are very different to mine. Where you deviate from the community in one direction, I generally do in the other...

also I can't believe the manifold covid market question is at 30. the only way that happens is through very big news (basically Xi admitting it) or market manipulation (then it will probably get annulled lol)

@nikki why would it get annulled on market manipulation? 😟

@Bayesian I'd bet against it getting annulled

@jim