Currently US policies prohibit Ukraine from striking military targets on Russian soil, perhaps out of fear that this would cross a red line and constitute further escalation.

According to the [ISW](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-24-2024) Russia has started to move its airforce assets from ATACAMS range, but there still are 233 "communications stations, logistics centers, repair facilities, fuel depots, ammunition warehouses, and permanent headquarters that would be extremely difficult or impossible to quickly redeploy assets from or rapidly harden."

The Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast however seems to prove those fears invalid.

Will the US shift its position on strikes in Russia until years end?

Epistemic Status:

• Serious question.

• A few minutes search on Metaculus and Predictit hasn't turned up too much on that.

Market conditions:

• I will trade in this market

• I am pro ukraine and think US permission on this will help to end the war sooner. Ofc i will try not to be biased, but i still am a fleshy human.

• If i ever get enough mana i'll maybe upgrade this to Plus.

Resolution criteria:

• It is not necessary to prove that it was exactly the incusion into Kursk that shifted the US position.

• Ukraine beginning to strike targets in Russia with US weapons in a big way, but without US permission will only count as YES if the US doesn't seriously disapprove. I.e. they just let it happen.

• Ukraine finding other means to strike these targets without the need for US approval (e.g. germany somehow provides loads of Taurus-Marschflugkörper) will resolve NO.