Will the US lift restrictions on Ukraine striking targets in Russia?
Basic
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1.9k
Dec 31
61%
chance

Currently US policies prohibit Ukraine from striking military targets on Russian soil, perhaps out of fear that this would cross a red line and constitute further escalation.

According to the [ISW](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-24-2024) Russia has started to move its airforce assets from ATACAMS range, but there still are 233 "communications stations, logistics centers, repair facilities, fuel depots, ammunition warehouses, and permanent headquarters that would be extremely difficult or impossible to quickly redeploy assets from or rapidly harden."

The Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast however seems to prove those fears invalid.

Will the US shift its position on strikes in Russia until years end?

Epistemic Status:

  • Serious question.

  • A few minutes search on Metaculus and Predictit hasn't turned up too much on that.

Market conditions:

  • I will trade in this market

  • I am pro ukraine and think US permission on this will help to end the war sooner. Ofc i will try not to be biased, but i still am a fleshy human.

  • If i ever get enough mana i'll maybe upgrade this to Plus.

Resolution criteria:

  • It is not necessary to prove that it was exactly the incusion into Kursk that shifted the US position.

  • Ukraine beginning to strike targets in Russia with US weapons in a big way, but without US permission will only count as YES if the US doesn't seriously disapprove. I.e. they just let it happen.

  • Ukraine finding other means to strike these targets without the need for US approval (e.g. germany somehow provides loads of Taurus-Marschflugkörper) will resolve NO.

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bought Ṁ200 NO

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-05/deep-strikes-into-russia-have-limited-value-pentagon-says

The Defense Department said lifting restrictions on Ukraine’s ability to carry out strikes deep inside Russia would have “very little strategic value” because the country’s military has already moved almost all of its armaments out of range.

...a number of factors are leading the US not to loosen all restrictions...

Deleted that link to "Ukrainska Pravda" from the description. Belongs in the commebt section.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/08/26/7472031/

Harris stance is pro NATO and pro Ukraine, but will they consider lifting the restrictions?
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/kamala-harris-says-she-will-stand-with-ukraine-nato-allies-2024-08-23/

För condition 2, does "just let it happen" include something like "the US calls a press conference denouncing it but nothing changes regarding weapons and ammo supplies"?

This is what I expect to happen btw

Jep. This would count as YES under condition 2.

bought Ṁ100 YES

Closes NO at eoy, I assume. Or does it extend if no clear YES?

NO at eoy.

But see 2nd and 3rd points in resolution criteria

edit: deleted the phrasing "233 targets" from point 3 in resolution criteria. Not all targets have to be targeted.

bought Ṁ100 NO

I wonder how this ties into US elections? I mean Trump wants to cut supply to Ukraine, but does this mean Ukraine will be less likely to use their remaining weapons on Russia in order to save them for later, or more likely to deal them one huge blow and buy time to source elswhere?