A few hours ago news surfaced that the Nova Khakova Dam has breached.
The river Dnjepr is flowing towards Kherson and flooding all the villages on its way.
This area has been a practically since the start of the invasion and most civilians should have evacuated long ago but some always refuse to move.
In one week what will I think is a reasonable estimate on the death toll in civilian lives?
Resolution criteria:
If the death count goes to 3201 civilians this market -and the other one in the comments- will resolve yes.
If the death count goes to 320 only this one will resolve yes.
If the death count reaches 32 this market will resolve as "no".
If no one dies I will celebrate.
I will base my estimates on mainstream media sources available on the interwebs (CNN, BBC, Reuters etc.).
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Followup Market:
https://manifold.markets/Schwabilismus/how-many-civilian-lives-did-the-bre
If you have suggestions regarding resolution criteria etc. please comment.
Golaya Pristan is closed by Russian supposedly to cover the info about the amount of dead. https://meduza.io/news/2023/06/11/volontery-zayavili-chto-rossiya-zakryla-zatoplennyy-gorod-golaya-pristan-na-karantin
@KongoLandwalker thanks for the source. Here is a translation of the latest entry:
Volunteers said that Russia has closed the flooded town of Golaya Pristan to quarantine
19:14, 11 June 2023
Source: Meduza
Russian forces decided to close the town of Golaya Prystan in the Kherson region, which is controlled by Russian troops and suffered from flooding after the disaster at the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power plant, to quarantine. This was reported to Meduza by Ukrainian volunteers.
According to them, the city was closed to entry and exit. Volunteers claim that Russian special services arrived in the Kherson region, possibly intending to "filter" civilians (this has not been confirmed). Volunteers say they will not be able to deliver humanitarian aid to local residents because of the closure of Golaya Pristana.
One of the coordinators of the largest volunteer chat room on the evacuation of residents on the left bank of the Dnieper River told "The Agency" that on 10 June, according to local residents, military troops drove through the flooded town and warned through a loudspeaker that Golaya Prystan would be closed for quarantine on 11 June. The Meduza's interlocutor confirmed this information.
An unnamed source among the volunteers told "Agence" that the decision to impose quarantine has been made.
Volunteers admit that there could be many deaths in the areas affected by the disaster at the Kakhovskaya HPP. After the break of the dam of the hydroelectric plant, volunteers said that the Ministry of Emergency Situations refused to let them into one of the flooded streets of the town of Alyoshki, where there could be deaths, and the next day - refused to let them into the town itself.
According to Ukraine's latest figures, six people died because of the flooding. The Russian-appointed "authorities" of the of the Kherson region said eight people died.
READ MORE
"They make people drown in their homes" Russian authorities have failed to evacuate the occupied territories in the Kherson region - and are only hindering those who are trying to save themselves and their neighbors. "Meduza" found out what's going on there
Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
@Schwabilismus "According to Ukraine's latest figures, six people died because of the flooding. The Russian-appointed "authorities" of the of the Kherson region said eight people died."
So less than ten according to this source.
According to this US-source it is also way less than 100:
@Schwabilismus yes, the Number of confirmed cases is less. It always has some delay. With such a huge territory I think the number will grow for 2 weeks, as water goes away and more info is gathered.
@Schwabilismus also, Ukrainian controlled part of the flooded area compared to russian controlled is much less than 6/8.
@Schwabilismus do you want this market to resolve tomorrow? Or it only closes tomorrow, but resolves when we have definitive info from organisations like red cross?
@KongoLandwalker I'd still resolve this tomorrow, bc I want to not break my habit of resolving in a timely fashion.
I created this one not with the intention to have the final results but more to get a rough estimate on the cost of the catastrophe.
@KongoLandwalker That would be unfair to the other traders who were led to believe this market would resolve quickly. Their liquidity would be bound longer than they signed up for.
@Schwabilismus all markets move further in time if the question is not answered.
I think that's silly to expect something to resolve before the reality.