How many civilian lives did the breach of the Nova Kakhova Dam cost?
3
270Ṁ121
resolved Mar 6
Resolved
58

Story:

https://kyivindependent.com/interior-minister-10-dead-42-missing-due-to-kakhovka-dam-disaster/

Full disclosure:
I am not sure about which sources to use to resolve this market. This topic may be difficult since:
A) this topic is political. Western and Russian sources are not reporting the same numbers.

B) Fog of war could make it difficult to assess what deaths are directly attributable to the flood and what deaths come from secondary sources like disease, malnourishment, shelling of evac-points, mines swept downstream etc.

C) I am a bit confused about how the victims are counted. Who is doing the counting? How and on what occasion?

Resolution criteria:

Assessment of victim numbers will be based on consensus. Possible sources are:

  1. organizations and institutions whose job it is to assess those numbers (e.g. Red Cross; Local administration, Ministry of internal affairs etc.).

  2. international news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP),

  3. Major western national news outlets (Kyiv Independent, CNN, BBC, etc.)

There is no time limit on this market, but i will write a comment a few days in advance to closing the market.

Only confirmed deaths are counted. Missing people don't count.

Only civilian deaths are counted. Combattants do not count. If there is ambiguity wheter a set of victims was civilian or not (e.g. if the russians are bringing up an excuse for shelling helpers trying to evacuate elderly people trapped in their flooded homes) the assessment of the ukrainian side will count.

Only deaths directly attributable to the flood will count.
Deaths from secondary sources (see point 2 in "full disclosure") will not count.

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Russia, which didn’t respond to questions for this article, has said 59 people drowned in the territory it controls, roughly 408 square kilometers (160 square miles) of flooded areas. But in the Russian-occupied town of Oleshky alone, which Ukrainian military officials estimate had a population of 16,000 at the time of the flooding, the number is at least in the hundreds.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-dam-collapse-kakhovka-kherson-daacdc431f42912dfb91548794f03a3c

Reuters says >50, Wikipedia says 58, but it's unclear to me where they get that exact number from.
I think this question should resolve to one of these, maybe the average? Unlikely to get better data than what already is. @Schwabilismus

predictedLOWER

I just realized that Russians and Ukrainians each count the deaths on their side of the river. So the numbers need to be added up to get the full count.

predictedLOWER

@Schwabilismus the message reads:

"Two more civilians died due to the flooding of Kherson.

Today, an unidentified woman and a 50-year-old man were found drowned in one of the city's districts.

In total, 10 people have been killed as a result of the Russian army's blowing up of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant dam. Another 20 people were injured, including 5 police officers and 2 rescuers.

Thirty-five people are missing, including seven children."

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