[Making Sense: Peter Zeihan] Will the german state cease to exist before 2070?

Peter Zeihan is a geopolitical strategist and a global energy demographic and security expert. He was a guest at Sam Harris' marvelous podcast "Making Sense". In the most recent Episode #355 "A Falling World", he layed out his view of current world events and made some very interesting predictions. What do we make with interesting predictions? Mana!

I will transcribe some of the relevant parts of the episode for context. If you want more you can get a preview of the episode here:


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However if you can't afford that financially you can always apply for a free scholarship. Just click on "For more pricing options, ->click here<-.", then on "Contact us" and fill out the form. Those scholarships are usually granted no-questions-asked.

This prediction is made around minute 47.

Quote: "I wouldn't expect to see a germany in 2070"

Transcript of the context: "We have never seen the grade of demographic decay like the present anywhere in history. Even in times of war and genocide, even in times of the black death. It has never happened this fast and this holistic. It has never happened everywhere.

What I would anticitpate is: we are going to see a failure of the economic and social models first, when you remove this mature worker generation from the equation as the agent of mass retirement. These states go from the most capital-flush they have ever been -because of the boomer approaching retirement not yet being there- to all of a sudden the boomer being a drag on state finances instead of the biggest source. And that generates at best a greece-style financial collapse in most of the advanced world.

In that sort of environment assuming there is no security problem you can look forward to, say banarepublic-style governing structures with devaluing currencies as they monetize to try to pay their bills.

You get something that is significantly worse than Weimar-era-Germany. But that assumes that there is no security problem. But the Russians have made it very clear that there IS a security problem, as well. So you now have dwindeling assets and a weaker state having to also possibly fight a war if not inderectly maybe even directly, so the stresses upon these governments and financial system is something we have not seen in the post World War 2 environment and at the same time where the state capacity to deal with these challenges will be the lowest to deal that they have been in the post World-War-2-environment."

Resolution Criteria:

  • We see some kind of collapse of the German social and financial system analog to what we have seen in Greece in 2010.

  • Inflation in Germany rises to hyperinflation-levels of the 1920s (Weimar-era).

I fully reserve the right to add further resolution criteria and to specify or change the existing ones without needing to reimburse anyone. However i promise to take great care in doing so.

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Peter Zeihan is a clown

@Schwabilismus Like Stratfor he makes a bunch of crank predictions.

@nathanwei I too think that it is too crass to say that germany will stop existing, so i bought "no". But more importantly we should celebrate people who let their beliefs be tested by making clear predictions, instead of cowardly putting out protect-your-ass-style wish-wash.

@Schwabilismus I think I disagree, really stupid predictions are not better than no predictions at all. Though, I guess stupid predictions make you easy to discredit.

@Schwabilismus Peter Zeihan sure as hell isn't credible on quantum computers 🤣


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