I hate that I'm even making this market

Resolution Criteria

For a draft to return, Congress would need to pass new legislation to amend the Military Selective Service Act. This market resolves YES if legislation authorizing a military draft is signed into law during Trump's second term (January 20, 2025 – January 20, 2029). Resolution will be determined by checking the status of draft authorization legislation on official government sources including Congress.gov and the Federal Register. The market resolves NO if Trump's term ends without such legislation being enacted.

Background

A draft hasn't been instituted in the country since 1973, and enlisting in the service is voluntary. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt did not rule out the possibility of a military draft, stating that "it's not part of the current plan right now, but the president, again, wisely keeps his options on the table." Tensions are mounting following U.S.-led strikes in Iran that have killed over 1,200 people.

Considerations

Congress holds the constitutional power to "raise and support Armies," and lawmakers would have to amend the Military Selective Service Act to authorize military conscription — which is unlikely to have any kind of majority support in a divided Congress during an unpopular war. With more than 1.3 million serving personnel, including active duty, Reserves, and National Guard, the United States possesses a massive amount of "surge capacity."

This description was generated by AI.