Will the US start conscription / a draft?
Will the US start conscription / a draft?
17
10kṀ24k2029
10%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
By February 1st, 2029, will the United States conscript at least 1000 people into the armed forces?
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will the United States re-institute the draft by 2030? 🪖🇺🇸
6% chance
Will there be a mandatory military draft in the USA by the end of 2030?
17% chance
Will the next military draft in the USA include women?
43% chance
Will there be a mandatory military draft in the USA by the end of 2060?
30% chance
Will I (an 18-year-old male US citizen) be drafted into the US military before Jan 1, 2029?
6% chance
Will the UK introduce mandatory conscription for any portion of its population before 2030?
10% chance
Will the draft be reinstated in the United States before 2030?
9% chance
Will Germany pass a law introducing conscription for 18 year olds by the end of 2025?
4% chance
Will the UK government pass legislation introducing conscription for military service before 2028?
4% chance
Will mandatory national service be a serious topic in US politics by the 2032 Presidential Election?
18% chance