Will the Myanmar junta have conducted airstrikes on Kachin rare earth mining sites by September 30, 2026?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ5Sep 30
12%
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This market resolves YES if, by September 30, 2026, Myanmar's military junta has conducted confirmed airstrikes targeting rare earth mining infrastructure in Kachin State.
YES if by September 30, 2026:
Credible reporting confirms junta aerial bombardment of RE mining sites, processing facilities, or RE-specific transport infrastructure in Chipwi/Pangwa/Momeik
NO if:
No confirmed airstrikes on RE mining sites by September 30, 2026
Airstrikes occurred near but not targeting mining operations
Resolution sources (priority order):
The Irrawaddy (irrawaddy.com)
Kachin News (kachinnews.com)
Myanmar Now (myanmar-now.org)
Stimson Center monitoring
Satellite imagery
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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