Where will the next 6.0+ magnitude earthquake on the San Andreas Fault occur?
2
Ṁ1kṀ430resolved Dec 5
100%70%
Between Eureka and Point Arena
3%
Between Point Arena and Point Reyes
3%
Between Point Reyes and San Jose (San Francisco bay area)
3%
Between San Jose and Hollister
4%
Between Hollister and Parkfield
3%
Between Parkfield and Frazier Park
4%
Between Frazier Park and San Bernadino
3%
Between San Bernadino and Desert Hot Springs
3%
Between Desert Hot Springs and Brawley
3%
South of Brawley and north of the Mexican border
An earthquake counts if its epicenter is within 100 miles of the San Andreas Fault. Resolves 50% each if the earthquake is right on the border between two categories.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ640 |
Sort by:
People are also trading
Related questions
Will there be a 6.7 or greater magnitude earthquake in San Francisco in 2026?
21% chance
When will the Big One earthquake happen in the San Andreas Fault?
The next 6.0 quake in CA happens in an even month
49% chance
Will a magnitude 8.0+ earthquake occur before September 1, 2026?
16% chance
Where will the largest magnitude Earthquake be in 2026?
Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater before 2030?
20% chance
Will there be an earthquake of magnitude >6.0 in the New Madrid Seismic Zone by the end of 2026?
9% chance
Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or greater before 2030?
9% chance
Will San Francisco experience a major earthquake before 2030?
12% chance
Will AI predict the next magnitude 7+ earthquake to hit San Francisco before it happens?
10% chance