Will there be an earthquake of magnitude >6.0 in the New Madrid Seismic Zone by the end of 2026?
4
120Ṁ235
2027
10%
chance

The New Madrid Seismic zone is the largest source of earthquake risk in the eastern United States with a high probability of an earthquake in the next 100 years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone

You can search for relevant earthquakes by magnitude and location here https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/

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We have learned a tremendous amount about the New Madrid seismic zone since 1985. One of the things we have learned is that coming up with probabilities is much more difficult than we used to think. If we use the data on historical seismicity combined with the new information on recurrence of large earthquakes, and make the same assumptions that go into the National Seismic Hazard maps, we would estimate a 25-40% chance of a magnitude 6.0 and greater earthquake in the next 50 years and about a 7-10% probability of a repeat of the 1811-1812 earthquakes in the same time period.

https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/new-madrid-seismic-zone

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