The European Union option requires tariffs to be imposed on every EU member state.
This market closes at the end of January, but options will not resolve NO until March 1st.
Update 2025-02-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Important Update on Resolution Criteria:
February 10, 2025 Announcement: Tariffs (25% on steel and aluminum imports) were announced to take effect on March 12, 2025.
February 13, 2025 Announcement: Initiation of research into country-specific reciprocal tariffs; no concrete imposition was announced.
Canada and Mexico Update: An executive order revised the start date of these tariffs to March 4, 2025, at 12:01 a.m. ET.
Resolution Impact: Based on these announcements, only any new tariff announcement (specifically regarding China) that takes effect before March 2025 would result in a YES outcome. All other options will resolve as NO unless a new qualifying tariff is announced within the next two weeks.
1,000https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Trump_tariffs
"On February 10, 2025, Trump announced 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports to the U.S., set to take effect on March 12, 2025"
"On February 13th, 2025, Trump asked his staff to research custom reciprocal tariffs for every country, taking into account features like their existing tariffs, trade balances, and value-added taxes, and to report back in 180 days."
"Trump issued an updated executive order changing the start date of the [Canada and Mexico] tariffs to March 4 at 12:01 a.m. Eastern Time."
Based on what has been announced so far, every option besides China will resolve NO, unless something new is announced and takes effect in the next two weeks.