Background On February 1, 2025, President Trump implemented tariffs on Canadian goods through an executive order, including a 25% tariff on all Canadian goods and a 10% tariff on Canadian energy. The Canadian government has indicated plans for retaliatory measures in response to these tariffs.

Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if President Trump signs an executive order or implements any other official policy that fully reverses the February 2025 tariffs on Canadian goods before March 15, 2025 (The Ides of March). The market will resolve NO if:

• The tariffs remain in place through March 15, 2025

• Only partial reversals or modifications are made to the tariffs

• The tariffs are reversed by someone other than Trump

Considerations

• Trade negotiations and policy changes can happen quickly and unexpectedly

• The Canadian government's planned retaliatory measures could influence the decision to maintain or reverse the tariffs

• Historical precedent shows that trade policies can be reversed or modified in response to diplomatic pressure or economic impacts

Sources:

• Financial Post: Trump's Executive Order on Canadian Tariffs

• CBC News: Coverage of 2025 Trade Tensions

• PBS NewsHour: Analysis of Trump's Tariff Plans