Background On February 1, 2025, President Trump implemented tariffs on Canadian goods through an executive order, including a 25% tariff on all Canadian goods and a 10% tariff on Canadian energy. The Canadian government has indicated plans for retaliatory measures in response to these tariffs.
Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if President Trump signs an executive order or implements any other official policy that fully reverses the February 2025 tariffs on Canadian goods before March 15, 2025 (The Ides of March). The market will resolve NO if:
The tariffs remain in place through March 15, 2025
Only partial reversals or modifications are made to the tariffs
The tariffs are reversed by someone other than Trump
Considerations
Trade negotiations and policy changes can happen quickly and unexpectedly
The Canadian government's planned retaliatory measures could influence the decision to maintain or reverse the tariffs
Historical precedent shows that trade policies can be reversed or modified in response to diplomatic pressure or economic impacts
Sources:
Financial Post: Trump's Executive Order on Canadian Tariffs
CBC News: Coverage of 2025 Trade Tensions
PBS NewsHour: Analysis of Trump's Tariff Plans
1,000
3.00
Tariffs paused for one month. Market will only be resolved based on whether Trump fully reverses this tariff threat with an EO or other official policy before March 15.
@sama how would it resolve if there was a 1 month pause of tariffs like the Mexico announcement earlier today:
@elf unless there is a full reversal, market resolves as NO. This type of 1 month pause would not resolve the market.