Resolution criteria

The market resolves YES if the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for the New York City metropolitan area in March 2026 is higher than in February 2026, as reported by the New York State Department of Labor's Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program. Data will be sourced from the LAUS program, a joint effort between New York State and the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, available at https://dol.ny.gov/local-area-unemployment-statistics.

Background

New York City's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 5.6% in December 2025, up 0.1 percentage point from November. In NYC, both initial weekly jobless claims and continuing claims have risen in recent weeks—likely driven by the nurses' strike and harsh weather. New York City added only 27,100 jobs in 2025, with job losses in manufacturing, trade and transportation, retail, information, finance, professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and government.

Considerations

Month-to-month unemployment comparisons can be volatile due to seasonal factors. Seasonally adjusted data is the best choice when comparing data from month to month, which this market uses. Recent labor market disruptions in NYC—including the nurses' strike and winter weather—may create unusual patterns in the February-to-March comparison.