Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Will the May 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ35
Jun 5
23%
chance

This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Employment Situation release for May 2026 reports the U.S. unemployment rate at 4.5% or higher. Use the headline seasonally adjusted unemployment rate from the household survey, BLS series LNS14000000, as reported in the first May 2026 Employment Situation release. Do not use later annual revisions unless the initial release is unavailable or corrected by BLS before this market resolves. Resolve NO if that initial May 2026 unemployment rate is 4.4% or lower. If the May 2026 Employment Situation release is delayed, wait for the first BLS release of the May 2026 figure unless there is no BLS May 2026 unemployment-rate release by June 30, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context from the BLS public API: {"last12_count_at_least_4_4": 4, "last12_count_at_least_4_5": 1, "latest": {"latest": true, "period": "M04", "periodName": "April", "value": "4.3", "year": "2026"}, "recent_values": [{"latest": true, "period": "M04", "periodName": "April", "value": "4.3", "year": "2026"}, {"latest": false, "period": "M03", "periodName": "March", "value": "4.3", "year": "2026"}, {"latest": false, "period": "M02", "periodName": "February", "value": "4.4", "year": "2026"}, {"latest": false, "period": "M01", "periodName": "January", "value": "4.3", "year": "2026"}, {"latest": false, "period": "M12", "periodName": "December", "value": "4.4", "year": "2025"}, {"latest": false, "period": "M11", "periodName": "November", "value": "4.5", "year": "2025"}, {"latest": false, "period": "M10", "periodName": "October", "value": "-", "year": "2025"}, {"latest": false, "period": "M09", "periodName": "September", "value": "4.4", "year": "2025"}, {"latest": false, "period": "M08", "periodName": "August", "value": "4.3", "year": "2025"}, {"latest": false, "period": "M07", "periodName": "July", "value": "4.3", "year": "2025"}, {"latest": false, "period": "M06", "periodName": "June", "value": "4.1", "year": "2025"}, {"latest": false, "period": "M05", "periodName": "May", "value": "4.3", "year": "2025"}, {"latest": false, "period": "M04", "periodName": "April", "value": "4.2", "year": "2025"}, {"latest": false, "period": "M03", "periodName": "March", "value": "4.2", "year": "2025"}, {"latest": false, "period": "M02", "periodName": "February", "value": "4.2", "year": "2025"}, {"latest": false, "period": "M01", "periodName": "January", "value": "4.0", "year": "2025"}], "release_schedule": "BLS June 2026 schedule lists Employment Situation for May 2026 at 08:30 ET on 2026-06-05.", "schedule_url": "https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/06_sched.htm", "series": "LNS14000000"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - BLS unemployment series API: https://api.bls.gov/publicAPI/v2/timeseries/data/LNS14000000?startyear=2025&endyear=2026 - BLS Employment Situation: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.htm - BLS June 2026 schedule: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/06_sched.htm - BLS CPS page: https://www.bls.gov/cps/

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!