With some rather dramatic exceptions New Zealand politics seems to have escaped the increasing polarisation and radicalisation of much of the rest of the English speaking world. As a Kiwi I can't help wondering if this will have changed by this time 2030.
Obviously there will be a subjective element to this question. But the rise of new radical parties, significant political violence, the rise of any radical political leaders and general vibe will all be considered.
1,000Interested on what your answer ends up being but probably a bit vague to know how to even begin to say yes OR no.
Arguably you could say some characteristics you've mentioned are already in play (e.g. increasing minor party share relative to National/Labour).
Vote share would be one way I could think of quantitatively assess this but you've also mentioned incidents of violence. If only we could measure general vibe which many can feel!