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MANIFOLD
If Marine Le Pen wins the 2027 French election more that 5% of French muslims will leave within three years.
10%
chance

Provoked by this article https://www.thelocal.fr/20261016/one-in-five-french-people-would-consider-leaving-if-le-pen-wins-election. It claims that over 40% of French would consider leaving if she won. If there seems to be a decline of more than five percent in the French Muslim population of more than 5 percent resolves yes. If Marine Le Pen does not win will resolve NA.

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